The States Where Electricity Bills Will Rise Most in 2027
Hawaii tops the ranking: households there are on track to pay +$57.53/month more by mid-2027 at the state's own average usage. 7 of the top 10 states are in the PJM grid region, where higher 2027/2028 capacity prices are already locked in at auction.
The full ranking
Download the data (CSV)| # | State | Avg bill (July 2026) | Price YoY | Locked PJM floor | Projected +$/mo by mid-2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawaii | $262 | +21.9% | — | +$57.53 |
| 2 | Maryland | $253 | +13.7% | 0.03¢/kWh | +$35.08 |
| 3 | New Hampshire | $207 | +16.7% | — | +$34.60 |
| 4 | New York | $234 | +14.0% | — | +$32.91 |
| 5 | North Carolina* | $203 | +13.4% | 0.03¢/kWh | +$27.16 |
| 6 | Ohio | $224 | +11.9% | 0.03¢/kWh | +$27.01 |
| 7 | Virginia | $228 | +11.2% | 0.03¢/kWh | +$25.97 |
| 8 | Michigan* | $211 | +12.2% | 0.03¢/kWh | +$25.64 |
| 9 | Pennsylvania | $221 | +11.3% | 0.03¢/kWh | +$25.41 |
| 10 | Delaware | $198 | +11.5% | 0.03¢/kWh | +$22.98 |
| 11 | Maine | $143 | +15.8% | — | +$22.63 |
| 12 | Illinois* | $193 | +11.6% | 0.03¢/kWh | +$22.43 |
| 13 | District of Columbia | $209 | +9.4% | 0.03¢/kWh | +$19.89 |
| 14 | Idaho | $153 | +11.8% | — | +$18.03 |
| 15 | Rhode Island | $217 | +8.1% | — | +$17.47 |
| 16 | Arkansas | $202 | +8.1% | — | +$16.26 |
| 17 | Mississippi | $228 | +7.1% | — | +$16.13 |
| 18 | Oklahoma | $229 | +6.1% | — | +$14.08 |
| 19 | Nebraska | $172 | +7.3% | — | +$12.60 |
| 20 | South Carolina | $232 | +5.2% | — | +$12.15 |
| 21 | Washington | $126 | +9.4% | — | +$11.80 |
| 22 | Kansas | $208 | +5.6% | — | +$11.66 |
| 23 | Colorado | $174 | +6.3% | — | +$11.00 |
| 24 | Georgia | $240 | +4.6% | — | +$10.97 |
| 25 | Vermont | $147 | +7.3% | — | +$10.65 |
| 26 | South Dakota | $176 | +5.9% | — | +$10.30 |
| 27 | Kentucky* | $193 | +5.2% | 0.03¢/kWh | +$9.97 |
| 28 | Iowa | $193 | +4.4% | — | +$8.58 |
| 29 | Texas | $251 | +3.4% | — | +$8.51 |
| 30 | Alaska | $141 | +5.6% | — | +$7.91 |
| 31 | Tennessee* | $205 | +3.8% | 0.03¢/kWh | +$7.76 |
| 32 | Missouri | $226 | +3.4% | — | +$7.71 |
| 33 | Wisconsin | $173 | +4.4% | — | +$7.67 |
| 34 | Alabama | $249 | +2.9% | — | +$7.34 |
| 35 | Indiana* | $205 | +3.4% | 0.03¢/kWh | +$6.97 |
| 36 | Montana | $133 | +5.1% | — | +$6.73 |
| 37 | Nevada | $207 | +3.1% | — | +$6.36 |
| 38 | California | $192 | +2.9% | — | +$5.58 |
| 39 | Minnesota | $169 | +3.1% | — | +$5.30 |
| 40 | West Virginia | $182 | +2.3% | 0.03¢/kWh | +$4.48 |
| 41 | Oregon | $137 | +2.3% | — | +$3.17 |
| 42 | Massachusetts | $225 | +1.4% | — | +$3.15 |
| 43 | New Mexico | $152 | +1.8% | — | +$2.79 |
| 44 | North Dakota | $144 | +0.8% | — | +$1.08 |
| 45 | Arizona | $263 | +0.3% | — | +$0.68 |
| 46 | New Jersey | $261 | -0.5% | 0.03¢/kWh | -$1.02 |
| 47 | Florida | $222 | -0.5% | — | -$1.18 |
| 48 | Wyoming | $131 | -1.9% | — | -$2.50 |
| 49 | Utah | $170 | -2.5% | — | -$4.15 |
| 50 | Louisiana | $212 | -3.0% | — | -$6.48 |
| 51 | Connecticut | $222 | -12.5% | — | -$27.63 |
The last column is the projected additional $/month by mid-2027 (estimate), at each state's own average residential usage. “Locked PJM floor” = capacity increase already cleared at auction, in cents/kWh; “—” = outside PJM or not reported. * Only part of the state is in the PJM footprint. Because the floor applies only to the PJM-served portion of load, these states are ranked on their observed trend alone - the floor is shown for reference, never applied to 100% of statewide usage.
Methodology
Data sources
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Electricity retail sales, residential sector, latest month July 2026 (public domain). Provides each state's average retail price (¢/kWh), average monthly usage (kWh), average monthly bill, and the observed year-over-year price change.
- PJM Base Residual Auction (BRA) clearing prices, RTO-wide, in $/MW-day - the capacity charges passed through to customers in the PJM footprint. Baseline 2026/2027 at $329.17/MW-day (the price already inside July 2026 bills), then the three delivery years already fixed at auction:
Delivery year Clearing price Result published 2026/2027 (Jun 2026 - May 2027) $329.17/MW-day 2025-07-22 2027/2028 (Jun 2027 - May 2028) $333.44/MW-day 2025-12-17 2028/2029 (Jun 2028 - May 2029) $325.00/MW-day 2026-07-14 - Load factor assumption: capacity prices are converted from $/MW-day into an energy-equivalent rate at a 60% system load factor (the fraction of peak demand that average demand represents) - the same documented assumption our projection model uses everywhere on this site.
The formula
projected Δ$/month = ( trend + locked floor ) × avg monthly kWh ÷ 100
- trend (¢/kWh) = current residential price × observed YoY change - the last 12 months' EIA price change extended one more year.
- locked floor (¢/kWh, counted for full-PJM states only) = the 2027/2028 clearing price minus the 2026/2027 baseline already in bills, converted via $/MW-day × 365 ÷ (8,760 h × load factor) ÷ 10 = 0.03¢/kWh. Partial-PJM states are ranked on trend alone (see the table footnote).
- Each state is ranked at its own average monthly usage, so high-usage states feel the same ¢/kWh increase more in dollar terms - as their residents actually would.
Caveats
- The trend is not a promise. It extends one observed year of EIA price movement; fuel and distribution costs can move either way.
- The PJM floor is RTO-wide - and a floor. Several utility zones cleared higher than the RTO price, so PJM-state increases can exceed the locked line shown here. In partial-PJM states the floor covers only PJM-served territory, so those states are ranked on their observed trend alone.
- Possible overlap between trend and floor. The observed YoY change through July 2026 already includes some pass-through of the 2026/2027 capacity step-up, so adding the locked 2027/2028 increment on top leans toward an upper bound. That is why the metric is labeled “projected additional $/month by mid-2027 (estimate)” - an estimate, not a forecast we promise.
- Averages, not your bill. Figures use each state's average residential price and usage; individual bills scale with usage and plan.
- All 51 jurisdictions had complete EIA data for July 2026, so every state is ranked.
Cite this study
Source: BillShocker analysis of U.S. EIA and PJM data, July 2026
https://billshocker.com/studies/electricity-bill-increases-2027
The ranking and the underlying data are free to republish with attribution and a link. Underlying EIA data is public domain; PJM auction results are published by PJM Interconnection.