The States Where Electricity Bills Will Rise Most in 2027
Hawaii tops the ranking: households there are on track to pay +$66.74/month more by mid-2027 at the state's own average usage. 7 of the top 10 states are in the PJM grid region, where higher 2026/2027 capacity prices are already locked in at auction.
The full ranking
Download the data (CSV)| # | State | Avg bill (May 2026) | Price YoY | Locked PJM floor | Projected +$/mo by mid-2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawaii | $250 | +26.7% | — | +$66.74 |
| 2 | Illinois* | $123 | +28.4% | 0.41¢/kWh | +$34.77 |
| 3 | District of Columbia | $128 | +24.3% | 0.41¢/kWh | +$33.08 |
| 4 | Maryland | $158 | +14.6% | 0.41¢/kWh | +$26.06 |
| 5 | Virginia | $146 | +15.4% | 0.41¢/kWh | +$25.85 |
| 6 | Ohio | $132 | +14.2% | 0.41¢/kWh | +$21.50 |
| 7 | New Jersey | $127 | +13.6% | 0.41¢/kWh | +$19.54 |
| 8 | New Hampshire | $136 | +13.8% | — | +$18.76 |
| 9 | Pennsylvania | $134 | +11.7% | 0.41¢/kWh | +$18.32 |
| 10 | New York | $134 | +12.1% | — | +$16.28 |
| 11 | Montana | $102 | +13.9% | — | +$14.13 |
| 12 | Mississippi | $152 | +8.9% | — | +$13.49 |
| 13 | South Dakota | $127 | +9.8% | — | +$12.37 |
| 14 | Delaware | $136 | +6.9% | 0.41¢/kWh | +$12.25 |
| 15 | Alaska | $142 | +8.2% | — | +$11.75 |
| 16 | Washington | $113 | +9.5% | — | +$10.76 |
| 17 | Kentucky* | $128 | +8.2% | 0.41¢/kWh | +$10.44 |
| 18 | Michigan* | $115 | +8.8% | 0.41¢/kWh | +$10.15 |
| 19 | Arkansas | $114 | +8.9% | — | +$10.14 |
| 20 | Louisiana | $144 | +6.7% | — | +$9.66 |
| 21 | Indiana* | $129 | +7.4% | 0.41¢/kWh | +$9.58 |
| 22 | Texas | $163 | +5.9% | — | +$9.58 |
| 23 | Georgia | $149 | +5.7% | — | +$8.56 |
| 24 | West Virginia | $125 | +3.8% | 0.41¢/kWh | +$7.82 |
| 25 | Minnesota | $106 | +7.0% | — | +$7.44 |
| 26 | Wyoming | $105 | +7.1% | — | +$7.44 |
| 27 | South Carolina | $148 | +5.0% | — | +$7.40 |
| 28 | North Carolina* | $130 | +5.4% | 0.41¢/kWh | +$7.01 |
| 29 | Tennessee* | $130 | +5.4% | 0.41¢/kWh | +$6.99 |
| 30 | Alabama | $160 | +3.8% | — | +$6.16 |
| 31 | Vermont | $120 | +4.8% | — | +$5.76 |
| 32 | Missouri | $111 | +5.1% | — | +$5.73 |
| 33 | Wisconsin | $109 | +4.2% | — | +$4.61 |
| 34 | North Dakota | $117 | +3.9% | — | +$4.56 |
| 35 | Oklahoma | $120 | +3.4% | — | +$4.08 |
| 36 | Maine | $144 | +2.6% | — | +$3.72 |
| 37 | Idaho | $92 | +4.0% | — | +$3.65 |
| 38 | Colorado | $97 | +3.7% | — | +$3.61 |
| 39 | Nebraska | $107 | +3.4% | — | +$3.60 |
| 40 | Kansas | $116 | +2.7% | — | +$3.14 |
| 41 | Nevada | $119 | +2.3% | — | +$2.78 |
| 42 | Utah | $87 | +2.9% | — | +$2.50 |
| 43 | Oregon | $110 | +2.3% | — | +$2.49 |
| 44 | Rhode Island | $148 | +1.6% | — | +$2.36 |
| 45 | Florida | $169 | +1.3% | — | +$2.26 |
| 46 | Iowa | $98 | -0.1% | — | -$0.14 |
| 47 | California | $136 | -0.1% | — | -$0.16 |
| 48 | New Mexico | $82 | -2.6% | — | -$2.16 |
| 49 | Arizona | $161 | -3.1% | — | -$4.92 |
| 50 | Massachusetts | $137 | -3.6% | — | -$4.93 |
| 51 | Connecticut | $146 | -13.4% | — | -$19.53 |
The last column is the projected additional $/month by mid-2027 (estimate), at each state's own average residential usage. “Locked PJM floor” = capacity increase already cleared at auction, in cents/kWh; “—” = outside PJM or not reported. * Only part of the state is in the PJM footprint. Because the floor applies only to the PJM-served portion of load, these states are ranked on their observed trend alone - the floor is shown for reference, never applied to 100% of statewide usage.
Methodology
Data sources
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Electricity retail sales, residential sector, latest month May 2026 (public domain). Provides each state's average retail price (¢/kWh), average monthly usage (kWh), average monthly bill, and the observed year-over-year price change.
- PJM Base Residual Auction (BRA) clearing prices, RTO-wide, in $/MW-day - the capacity charges passed through to customers in the PJM footprint. Baseline 2025/2026 at $269.92/MW-day (the price already inside May 2026 bills), then the three delivery years already fixed at auction:
Delivery year Clearing price Result published 2026/2027 (Jun 2026 - May 2027) $329.17/MW-day 2025-07-22 2027/2028 (Jun 2027 - May 2028) $333.44/MW-day 2025-12-17 2028/2029 (Jun 2028 - May 2029) $325.00/MW-day 2026-07-14 - Load factor assumption: capacity prices are converted from $/MW-day into an energy-equivalent rate at a 60% system load factor (the fraction of peak demand that average demand represents) - the same documented assumption our projection model uses everywhere on this site.
The formula
projected Δ$/month = ( trend + locked floor ) × avg monthly kWh ÷ 100
- trend (¢/kWh) = current residential price × observed YoY change - the last 12 months' EIA price change extended one more year.
- locked floor (¢/kWh, counted for full-PJM states only) = the 2026/2027 clearing price minus the 2025/2026 baseline already in bills, converted via $/MW-day × 365 ÷ (8,760 h × load factor) ÷ 10 = 0.41¢/kWh. Partial-PJM states are ranked on trend alone (see the table footnote).
- Each state is ranked at its own average monthly usage, so high-usage states feel the same ¢/kWh increase more in dollar terms - as their residents actually would.
Caveats
- The trend is not a promise. It extends one observed year of EIA price movement; fuel and distribution costs can move either way.
- The PJM floor is RTO-wide - and a floor. Several utility zones cleared higher than the RTO price, so PJM-state increases can exceed the locked line shown here. In partial-PJM states the floor covers only PJM-served territory, so those states are ranked on their observed trend alone.
- Possible overlap between trend and floor. The observed YoY change through May 2026 already includes some pass-through of the 2025/2026 capacity step-up, so adding the locked 2026/2027 increment on top leans toward an upper bound. That is why the metric is labeled “projected additional $/month by mid-2027 (estimate)” - an estimate, not a forecast we promise.
- Averages, not your bill. Figures use each state's average residential price and usage; individual bills scale with usage and plan.
- All 51 jurisdictions had complete EIA data for May 2026, so every state is ranked.
Cite this study
Source: BillShocker analysis of U.S. EIA and PJM data, May 2026
https://billshocker.com/studies/electricity-bill-increases-2027
The ranking and the underlying data are free to republish with attribution and a link. Underlying EIA data is public domain; PJM auction results are published by PJM Interconnection.